On Friday, Russian troops invaded the country of Georgia. As I write this, five days later, President Medvedev of Russia and President Sarkozy of France are holding a press conference announcing a ceasefire.

This is not the end of fighting.

When the Soviet Union broke up in 1992, Russia lost an empire. As you can imagine, many people in Russia lament that loss – and as you know, Russia likes to pretend that it is still a superpower.

Under that umbrella of thought, Russia, shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union, established the Commonwealth of Independent States. Simply put, the CIS is an international community. It is an alliance and a symbol of solidarity between the former soviet states. The Russians see the CIS as their sphere of influence and they hate, HATE, interference in CIS matters by western powers.

One of the ongoing sources of tension between Russia and the west is perceived meddling in CIS affairs. Russia has done everything in its power to stop (read: cock block) the EU and NATO from gaining influence in the CIS – despite those organizations and countries both wanting to move forward on such agreements. The zeal with which Russia fears western influence in this area is akin to an over-protective father forbidding his 20-something year old daughter from dating a biker skinhead.

Good luck. Georgia renounced its membership in the CIS today.

Russia wants … craves influence in the former soviet states. To get it, they are willing to do pretty much anything.

Georgia is a pro-western country. It has been seeking membership in NATO and is an ally of America. There were 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq prior to this crisis (they were recalled to deal with Russia), and there is a major oil pipeline that was specifically built to circumvent Russian territory running through Georgia.

Russia has not been happy with Georgia. Because of this, Russia has funded, supported, and propped up pro-Russian anti-government forces in Georgia that has resulted in an pair of autonomous zones that have been out of the control of the government since 2004. Most of these people are Russian nationals and ethnic minorities who were sort of stranded in Georgia after the Soviet Union fell and are Russian first and Georgian second (if at all).

These people have been doing what rebels do. Georgian officials have been doing what any government does with revolutionary elements. The Russians are doing what the Soviets did over, and over, and over, and over again during the cold war.

Step 1: Create rebellion.
Step 2: Use the rebellion as an excuse to intervene.
Step 3: Set up a pro-Russian government in areas under Russian military control.

Step one? Check. Step two? Check. Step three? In progress.

Russia may or may not try to topple the Tblisi government entirely. At the very least though, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will become permanently out of the control of the Georgian government. Russia has stated that it will accept a “non-use of force agreement” from Georgia for peace – an agreement that will result in a de facto surrender of the two regions.

This will be worth keeping an eye on. If Russia gets away with this untouched, it will turn its attention to other pro-western CIS states such as Latvia (a US ally seeking EU membership) and the Ukrane (a pro-western democracy seeking NATO membership that’s had more uprisings than I can count).

My suggestion: Let Russia impose independence on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and use that imposition to punish the ever-loving snot out of them. Impose sanctions on Russia, kick it out of (or desolve) the G8, fast track NATO membership for whatever’s left in Georgia, Ukrane, and other CIS states. Put American military hardware in pro-western states that boarder Russia, and go full steam ahead in our plans for a missile defense system.

Russia will HATE the military support for the pro-western states in the CIS by NATO. That buildup can then be scaled back for Russia’s cooperation with Iran, North Korea, energy concerns, and anything else we may want.

It’s Machiavellian, but it’s the best we can hope for. We can’t stop the Russians from trying to take whatever they want in Georgia. We just aren’t situated to respond properly. Using the attack as a pretence to punish Russia and get every bit of leverage we can is the right play.